US – Election 2012 – General Election Prediction on Daily Kos Site – Real Battleground is Florida – Other Important States are Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia – 12 April 2012

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/04/11/1082476/-Obama-leads-Romney-by-landslide-numbers


Interesting political geography claim. I suspect Romney will try to close the gap if he gets the nomination by reinventing himself again as a “born-again moderate” after the convention closes.

Judging from the numbers presented here, the Romney strategy would have to be to focus on mainly on Florida, and also on Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia.

Florida and three of those other states being added to the Romney column would mean victory for him, assuming no other changes to the predictions made here, but Obama’s leads in those four states is still pretty commanding at this point (a 5% lead in NC and PA, a 6% lead in FL, an 8% lead in OH, and a 9% lead in PA).

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