I will totally take this bet. Obama is going to stand firm on getting rid of the Bush tax cuts. He may compromise on other things to get rid of the Bush tax cuts, but it’s obvious they’re going down.
Liberal and social democratic parties the world over are coming to recognise how wildly unpopular the rich not paying their fair share of taxes is, and Obama’s a smart politician. He knows how much his opposition to the Bush tax cuts is responsible for his victory. By winning his second election, adding to the Democratic control of the Senate and chipping away at the Republican control of the House (with a majority of votes for House candidates in 2012 going to the Democrats, despite the Republican majority that was returned there), Obama has made it clear he has the political capital to get rid of that albatross once and for all.
I’ll take the risk of having egg on my face if I’m wrong about this. Obama would be a fool not to take the Bush tax cuts down at the earliest opportunity. I could only see him retaining them if the Republicans give up about a hundred other things they like (in which case, I expect the even extreme Left detractors of “Obamabots” would on balance be okay with the move).
Time for the real Obama to stand up? Just watch him.
P.S., This blog article by Rachel Maddow is part of the reason I think it’s obvious Obama will stand firm. It’s pretty clear this scenario can and most likely will play out: